Volumes And Rejections Up Off The Bottom Just Enough To Move The Needle In Carriers’ Favor

The DHL Supply Chain Pricing Power Index uses the analytics and data contained in FreightWaves SONAR to analyze the market and estimate the negotiating power for rates between shippers and carriers.

Tender volumes are racing to the upside and are tracking positive year-over-year in May, albeit off a depressed 2019 comparison. Volumes have risen more than 15% since the trough on April 16. Tender rejections are reacting slowly to the rising volumes, but rising nonetheless. Capacity remains very loose and spot rates remain depressed, but things are brighter now than they have been in many weeks. 

We had expected volumes to bounce off the bottom once parts of the economy reopened, but the rise over the past two weeks is surprising. The whiplash in freight volumes over the past two months has been like riding a prized steer in a Texas rodeo. Just one month ago, the outbound tender volume index (OTVI) was down 16% y/y. Today, May 14, OTVI is positive on a yearly basis. However, this needs to be taken with a grain of salt — May 2019 was a particularly slow point in the weak first half of 2019. Trade tensions and Trump tweets disrupted freight flows … Read The Rest